Introduction

For nearly a decade, "strategic competition" has served as the dominant framework for understanding U.S.-China relations. However, amid increased high-level diplomatic engagement and emerging risks and opportunities in areas like advanced technology and climate change, "constructive strategic stability" is gaining traction as a new paradigm for defining this dynamic equilibrium.

With President Xi’s state visit just around the corner, critical questions arise: Will this summit signal a fundamental shift in U.S.-China relations, and can the consensus on "strategic stability" endure beyond a single meeting and translate into institutionalized mechanisms?

In this episode, Prof. Da Wei, Director of CISS, and Prof. Shao Yuqun, Director of the Institute of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, sits down with Senior Colonel (Ret.) Zhou Bo, Senior Research Fellow at CISS. The panel explores evolving perceptions of the U.S.-China power balance, the interplay of competition and interdependence in areas like trade and artificial intelligence, and how these forces establish guardrails for bilateral engagement and the broader international order.

Shownotes

01:22 Is China–U.S. Relations Entering a New Phase?

07:31 What Is Driving Changes in U.S.-China Relations?

17:01 Economic Leverage and Mutual Vulnerability

28:51 U.S. Policy Toward China: Decoupling, De-risking, or Localization

34:45 Shifts in U.S. Taiwan Policy

49:20 How U.S.-China Competition Is Shaping China’s External Environment

58:38 U.S.-China Dynamics and Their Implications for Global Order and Emerging Multipolarity

01:05:51 From Summit Consensus to Functional Mechanisms

Team

Executive Producer： GUO Jia

Producer： QIAN Jiatong

Podcast Editor： CHAI Jingru

Content Assistant： RUAN Xinyi

Graphics Designer： CHAI Jingru